Pats at Ravens

[tsylvester]

One quick look at their records and one would think the Pats should be an overwhelming favorite. But a closer look shows that they have only beaten three teams with a 500 record or better, 2 of them are 7-7.

Oh wait, that is where the Ravens currently sits, at 500, 7-7, right up the alley for the Pats.

Coming off of a shutout against the high-flying Bengals, this Ravens team seems to have found their major, or have they only found mojitos?

Baltimore did pitch  a shutout, which is impressive, but the Bengal offense dominated the time of possession for the game. The Ravens offense only managed to score 17 pts, enough to win when the other team doesn't score, but hardly anything to get excited about. Certainly not enough to say the highscoring, top 5 offense of last is back.

Sure, they did score on a long drive that took them only 40 seconds just before half, but the rest of the game was filled with the typical miscues that have dogged this team this year. Receivers not catching the ball that would have been a touchdown, tipping a pass to the defender, stopping a drive in its tracks. Penalties, missed blocks, missed tackles, we had it all..

So what happens in this game, likely more of the same,

So, who ya got?

[papasmurfbell]

Cincy is ready for vacation.  That win means nothing to me.  Ne will rush the ball right into the spine of the d.  I expect a ravens l.

[oldno82]

The Ravens should lose this one and probably the two after it. If they win, they'll have to have done it by rediscovering their mojo from last year and the first three quarters of the Bills game. I don't see that happening.

The Pats aren't a super team, and we probably have more talent at the skill positions, but we live and die in the trenches which is where our weakness is along with mediocre (at best)  coaching. Vrabel will have his team ready. Will Harbaugh??

[tsylvester]

Sadly I agree, I don't think that this will be much of a game for very long.

This defense is terrible at staying home, covering the backside of the line of scrimmage. The Pats love to use cut back runs.

Fitting I suppose as it will be another game they would have won last year, especially at home 

[tsylvester]

Lamar missed Wednesday practice, this time not for "rest" rather because of an "illness". Guess he couldn't resist the spicy chicken again... clear the bathroom!

[tsylvester]

Pats players who missed practice Wednesday 

CB Carlton Davis III (Hip)
LB Christian Elliss (Illness)
CB Marcus Jones (Knee)
LB Harold Landry III (Knee)
LB Robert Spillane (Ankle)

Ravens who did not

CB Chidobe Awuzie (Foot)
LB Teddye Buchanan (Knee)
QB Lamar Jackson (Illness)
LB Roquan Smith (Knee)
T Ronnie Stanley (Knee/Ankle)
OLB Kyle Van Noy (Quad)

[oldno82]

At this point in the season, probably every player is nursing some type of injury even if it's not reported. 

Lamar was back at practice today. That's a pretty quick recovery for an 'illness'. I wonder if he's so banged up, he just needs the extra day right now. 

I worry that all the hits he's taken over the last 7 years have caught up with him.

[tsylvester]

Several other Ravens veterans also returned to practice: left tackle Ronnie Stanley (knee/ankle), linebacker Roquan Smith (knee), and outside linebacker Kyle Van Noy (quad). Stanley and Van Noy were limited and Smith was a full participant. Wide receiver Rashod Bateman (ankle) logged a full practice for a second straight day.

Cornerback Chidobe Awuzie (foot) was not back, however, which puts his status more into doubt heading into a critical Week 16 game against the New England Patriots and quarterback Drake Maye.

From the Ravens home site

[tsylvester]

Finally found it, the Ravens are 14th worst in the league in missed tackles with 83.

Pats are the best with 53

Per PFF, for what it is worth (no, not a big fan of the site, question some of their stats, the ambiguity of it all)

[tsylvester]

Some light reading until game time tonight. To say run should be early and often is an understatement 

From the Pats site

It took an opposing running back 10 weeks to eclipse the 50-rushing yard mark against the Patriots defense. That was when Buccaneers running back Sean Tucker totaled 53 yards across nine carries.

What was an elite run defense to date started to show cracks that Sunday in Tampa Bay. Those have now fully revealed themselves.

Since Week 10, the Patriots run defense has cratered to 29th in rush EPA and 31st in the NFL in rush success rate. Over their first nine games, New England ranked 3rd in rush EPA and 8th in success rate.

“Obviously we’re struggling a little bit, it’s been down these last couple weeks,” outside linebackers coach Mike Smith said this week. “We have to get back to what we were at the beginning of the year.”

Injuries have not helped the case.

After suffering an ankle injury early in Week 11, star defensive tackle Milton Williams has resided on injured reserve over the last three games and will remain out Sunday. Fellow defensive tackle Khyiris Tonga (chest) missed a Monday night matchup against the New York Giants.

Linebacker Robert Spillane played a season-low 39 defensive snaps in that contest before not playing last week as he was available only in emergency. Spillane, who was seen in a walking boot this week, has already been ruled out for Sunday night.

But in addition to the injuries, the Patriots’ details, technique, and fundamentals — which add up to be the third pillar of Mike Vrabel’s team identity — were lacking in a 35-31 loss to the Buffalo Bills, who generated a +0.23 rush EPA (95th percentile).

“Just really working on the technique of their job and making sure we’re not chasing plays,” defensive play caller Zak Kuhr explained. “Sometimes guys want to make plays and they get excited and step out of their responsibility to try and make a play. Just do our job with good technique and fundamentals.”

“We want to chase wins, we don’t want to chase plays,” Vrabel added. “That’s the message. I think if we focus on winning and what’s required of winning, then every play will come to us and we’ll make the ones that we’re supposed to make.”

Healthy reinforcements will help, which should include the return of Milton Williams from injured reserve next week as he continues to progress well from his ankle sprain.

But this week, however, New England’s current personnel will be tested again in Baltimore. With Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson — plus change-of-pace back Keaton Mitchell — leading their ground game, the Ravens are third in the NFL in rushing yards per game (146.2), sixth in rush EPA, and second in explosive run rate.

https://www.patspulpit.com/new-england-patriots-opinion/116750/sunday-notes-run-defense-nfl-week-16-ravens

 

[oldno82]

As Pacino would say, "This is gonna be tuff!". I don't think we can beat the Pats especially with Vrabel coaching them.

[papasmurfbell]

One step closer.

[tsylvester]

Another 4th quarter collapse by the defense, an 11 point blown lead. Running at will, create 2 turnovers, 3 sacks, then they disappear. Yes, players need to be gone, positions improved. But the coach has to take blame, this isn't the first time, nor even the 5th time this team has blown a double digit lead in the 4th.

Another game they should have won, in the end, oh well. Season is officially over

[tsylvester]

This loss was exactly like the other, especially the big games. Henry running wild, then he fumbles.

Zay, the only one who can get open, on a critical drive, he fumbles.

Henry running wild and the coaches take him out, for what amounted to be most of the 4th quarter.

Defense gets pressure in the quarterback but they fall down before sacking him.

The only thing missing was the bone headed play from Lamar, but then he "got hurt" late in the 2nd after only scoring 7 pts.

Humphrey cant cover any more, sure he had a pick at the goal line, but after that, missed tackles, wide open recievers he is supposed to cover. .

How bad is the Pats defense? Huntley hung 17 on them and was driving for a game winning score at the end.

The last Pats drive, no pressure, 4 man rush, most of them double teamed, 7 in zone coverage all just waiting for the ball to be thrown to react.

Yes, Orr has to go, Harbs as well. His "explanation" as to why Henry was not in for the last 12+ minutes of the game is bunk. "Roation", really? Game on the line, playoffs on the line, division on the line, Henry the only back in the "rotation" who is being extremely productive, is kept out? 

[GrubberRaven]

Clean house.

Inexcusable that Henry was benched because he was part of the rotation at that point.

"You play to win the game"

[oldno82]

4 hours ago, tsylvester said:

This loss was exactly like the other, especially the big games. Henry running wild, then he fumbles.

Zay, the only one who can get open, on a critical drive, he fumbles.

Henry running wild and the coaches take him out, for what amounted to be most of the 4th quarter.

Defense gets pressure in the quarterback but they fall down before sacking him.

The only thing missing was the bone headed play from Lamar, but then he "got hurt" late in the 2nd after only scoring 7 pts.

Humphrey cant cover any more, sure he had a pick at the goal line, but after that, missed tackles, wide open recievers he is supposed to cover. .

How bad is the Pats defense? Huntley hung 17 on them and was driving for a game winning score at the end.

The last Pats drive, no pressure, 4 man rush, most of them double teamed, 7 in zone coverage all just waiting for the ball to be thrown to react.

Yes, Orr has to go, Harbs as well. His "explanation" as to why Henry was not in for the last 12+ minutes of the game is bunk. "Roation", really? Game on the line, playoffs on the line, division on the line, Henry the only back in the "rotation" who is being extremely productive, is kept out? 

I really don't have much to add to this excellent analysis. Yes Harbs and his staff must go, but I am now starting to think Lamar must go too. He has become too fragile to count on and he's so beaten up after years of running the ball, he just can't move around in the pocket quickly enough to avoid the sack anymore which leads to more hits on his body and less effectiveness, and on and on. It's a vicious circle. The O-line is decent for running the ball but can't pass protect effectively enough.

The season, supposedly one ending in a deep playoff run, is over. Pittsburgh will win the division and we will spend the off-season on year 1 of a multi-year rebuild.

[krf82]

Lamar's value for a trade to a warmer climate or dome will never be as high as it is now...

[papasmurfbell]

2 hours ago, oldno82 said:

I really don't have much to add to this excellent analysis. Yes Harbs and his staff must go, but I am now starting to think Lamar must go too. He has become too fragile to count on and he's so beaten up after years of running the ball, he just can't move around in the pocket quickly enough to avoid the sack anymore which leads to more hits on his body and less effectiveness, and on and on. It's a vicious circle. The O-line is decent for running the ball but can't pass protect effectively enough.

The season, supposedly one ending in a deep playoff run, is over. Pittsburgh will win the division and we will spend the off-season on year 1 of a multi-year rebuild.

I recall saying this would happen to max what maybe 6 yrs ago.  I was told I don’t know what I’m talking about.  I can see the forest through the trees and make comps and recall how they ended up.  This whole outcome was predictable.

[papasmurfbell]

Against real QBs this yr we are 2-8.  A 100 qbr given up by our d.  When we ran off that streak it was about how bad the teams we played were.  There is so much to fix in this team.

[papasmurfbell]

With a 7 pt lead in the 4th q we have 12 losses since 2020.  That is the worst place in nfl history for a 5 yr span.

[papasmurfbell]

3 way tie for 2nd place with 7 losses.