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Is It Really This Bad?


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#41 papasmurfbell

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Posted 16 October 2015 - 07:57 AM

I like Bernie but I don't think he can win. And if he did he couldn't get the changes he wants through Congress.

When he got in I was sure he would lose big but now the way the polls are going I think he has a real shot.  

 

If he wins he does get to stock depts like the SEC with his people.  He might not get the laws he wants but can make sure the ones that are on te books are used with fire and brimstone.


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k2-_2564f5e3-aa08-456b-81e9-b7cffd9b394d

Fako, Joe Fako I am the Pick Machine!!!


#42 GrubberRaven

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Posted 16 October 2015 - 08:32 AM

He lives!


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#43 papasmurfbell

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Posted 16 October 2015 - 08:40 AM

For today.


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k2-_2564f5e3-aa08-456b-81e9-b7cffd9b394d

Fako, Joe Fako I am the Pick Machine!!!


#44 thundercleetz

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Posted 16 October 2015 - 10:22 AM

I am interested - O'Malley didn't do great but definitely didn't flop. I have heard rumors the media will eventually pick him up a bit because they want more of a 'race' against Hillary. 


I can see that with all the baggage Hillay has. Probably waiting for a firm answer on Biden before deciding to push O'Malley. Me personally, I don't care for O'Malley. And it has little to do with how he did as governor of MD (which I don't actually have a problem with).

I don't disagree but I think the media doesn't love covering him. The reality is in money, donors and crowds, Bernie is killing everyone... Even Trump. But you don't hear it.

I also think his struggles with minorities, which may be overrated, could also be a major struggle for him and the media seems to be betting on that...


I think the thing with minority voter bases and Bernie is not whether they approve of him (probably still preferable to a Republican to many), but whether they approve of him enough to go out and vote. Minority voter bases historically have lower voter turnout rates, but turnout got much better with Obama's two campaigns. Hillary seems like a safe bet for the party in regards to building on Obama's success in voter turnout with minorities, and of course, women.

Sanders is a risk in the sense of not only minority turnout, but for the moderate white voter in swing states. Not saying the moderate voter would automatically vote Republican, but might not turnout at all.
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#45 papasmurfbell

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Posted 16 October 2015 - 11:40 AM

This yr seems to be the anti politician yr.  Political speak and playing insider games is not working.  That is why Carson and Trump are polling so well.  While Sanders has been in DC fro a long time he doesn't play the game.  His "Wall St regulates congress" line rankles the establishment.  Also looking at how all the polls from the media groups say Sanders won the debate hands down but the media says Hillary won might blow up in her and their faces.


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k2-_2564f5e3-aa08-456b-81e9-b7cffd9b394d

Fako, Joe Fako I am the Pick Machine!!!


#46 thundercleetz

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Posted 16 October 2015 - 01:52 PM

This yr seems to be the anti politician yr.  Political speak and playing insider games is not working.  That is why Carson and Trump are polling so well.  While Sanders has been in DC fro a long time he doesn't play the game.  His "Wall St regulates congress" line rankles the establishment.  Also looking at how all the polls from the media groups say Sanders won the debate hands down but the media says Hillary won might blow up in her and their faces.


Another view on the debate:

http://www.salon.com...ocratic_debate/
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#47 papasmurfbell

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Posted 16 October 2015 - 03:26 PM

The problem is it is an insider wanting to push thir horse forward.  She lost the CNN, Fox, Huffpost, and all the rest.  Remember how in 2012 Fox was sure Mitt would win even though all the polls said he would't.


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k2-_2564f5e3-aa08-456b-81e9-b7cffd9b394d

Fako, Joe Fako I am the Pick Machine!!!


#48 thundercleetz

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Posted 16 October 2015 - 03:53 PM

The problem is it is an insider wanting to push thir horse forward.  She lost the CNN, Fox, Huffpost, and all the rest.  Remember how in 2012 Fox was sure Mitt would win even though all the polls said he would't.


Ultimately the convention decides who the candidate is. For the Democrats, white states like Iowa, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and Vermont are worthless. The presidential election is a predictable enough game: the election comes down to Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and throw North Carolina in there as well (and if the Republicans lose Florida it's over regardless).

Until Sanders gains traction in the diverse, heavily populated states, Hillary is the candidate. While Sanders might have "won" the debate, Hillary did not bomb the debate by any means. The question is: did Sanders do enough to convert a Hillary voter? I don't think so. Even if Sanders won, it wasn't by much.

Still early though, a lot could happen.
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#49 papasmurfbell

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Posted 16 October 2015 - 04:10 PM

It has been decades since a convention actually decided the nom.  If Debbie Wasserman Shultz steals this for Hillary after Sanders skull dragging Clinton she will loose the base.

 

Remember Leiberman was #1 for a period of time in in 2004 and came in 5th place.  If Sanders wins Iowa and NH then he will gain traction and people will decide to move on from Hillary.

 

http://www.newyorker...ic-debate-wrong

 

 

 

Let’s look, briefly, at the case for the prosecution. At AlterNet, the alternative-news site, Adam Johnson pointed out, “Sanders won the CNN focus group, the Fusion focus group, and the Fox News focus group; in the latter, he even converted several Hillary supporters. He won the Slate online poll, CNN/Time online poll, 9News Colorado, The Street online poll, Fox5 poll, the conservative Drudge online poll and the liberal Daily Kos online poll. There wasn’t, to this writer’s knowledge, a poll he didn’t win by at least an 18-point margin.”

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k2-_2564f5e3-aa08-456b-81e9-b7cffd9b394d

Fako, Joe Fako I am the Pick Machine!!!


#50 thundercleetz

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Posted 16 October 2015 - 04:48 PM

It has been decades since a convention actually decided the nom.  If Debbie Wasserman Shultz steals this for Hillary after Sanders skull dragging Clinton she will loose the base.
 
Remember Leiberman was #1 for a period of time in in 2004 and came in 5th place.  If Sanders wins Iowa and NH then he will gain traction and people will decide to move on from Hillary.
 
http://www.newyorker...ic-debate-wrong
 


I read the article and I'm still unsure what converting several supporters amounts to. I'm weary of taking voter pulse on Twitter and Facebook. Lead to some wrong predictions in 2014.

The convention came close to having to decide the DNC candidate in '08. You could be right about momentum in the early stages, but I disagree for the time being. I think you're underestimating Hillary's support base. Going back to social media, I'm not sure the loud and passionate progressive voice we hear is necessarily representative of the Democratic voter base. I think Hillary captures a large moderate voter base, that wouldn't necessarily throw their support behind Bernie.

I am very interested. Even though I do not support Sanders, I want to see Sanders and his grass roots campaign make some serious noise.
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#51 papasmurfbell

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Posted 16 October 2015 - 04:58 PM

She was in a much better position this time 8 yrs ago.  Seh was the absolute lock then.  


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k2-_2564f5e3-aa08-456b-81e9-b7cffd9b394d

Fako, Joe Fako I am the Pick Machine!!!


#52 dc.

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Posted 16 October 2015 - 06:50 PM

I can see that with all the baggage Hillay has. Probably waiting for a firm answer on Biden before deciding to push O'Malley. Me personally, I don't care for O'Malley. And it has little to do with how he did as governor of MD (which I don't actually have a problem with).


I think the thing with minority voter bases and Bernie is not whether they approve of him (probably still preferable to a Republican to many), but whether they approve of him enough to go out and vote. Minority voter bases historically have lower voter turnout rates, but turnout got much better with Obama's two campaigns. Hillary seems like a safe bet for the party in regards to building on Obama's success in voter turnout with minorities, and of course, women.

Sanders is a risk in the sense of not only minority turnout, but for the moderate white voter in swing states. Not saying the moderate voter would automatically vote Republican, but might not turnout at all.


I agree on all accounts. Re: O'Malley, I agree that I have less issue with his rule of MD than most (long term, his success will be judged better given the quality of life achievements in the midst of a recession). But like Hillary he can be smug and like any politician, incredibly fake.
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Battle not with monsters, lest ye become a monster too. And when you stare into the abyss, the abyss stares also into you.

#53 vmax

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Posted 18 October 2015 - 11:37 AM

49752-twilight-zone-twighlightzone.png


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"Quarterbacks don't run forever in the NFL," Marvin 'Sour Grapes' Lewis said after his team's 24-21 loss in Baltimore. "Sooner or later, they get hurt, and they don't run the same.


#54 dc.

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Posted 18 October 2015 - 11:55 AM

There's more wrong with that poster than I care to discuss.
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Battle not with monsters, lest ye become a monster too. And when you stare into the abyss, the abyss stares also into you.

#55 papasmurfbell

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Posted 19 February 2016 - 12:55 AM

A little more than 4 months later and HRC is falling apart.


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k2-_2564f5e3-aa08-456b-81e9-b7cffd9b394d

Fako, Joe Fako I am the Pick Machine!!!


#56 thundercleetz

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Posted 19 February 2016 - 11:27 AM

Not quite. Even after a poor showing in NH, that did not mean much in terms of delegates. Hillary is holding a commanding lead in SC:

http://www.realclear...imary-4167.html

SC will be a big test for Bernie as it has a diverse counties that are better representative of the country as a whole. If he polls strong in SC he will have some serious momentum. If not, it will be a difficult battle going into Super Tuesday.
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#57 Spen

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Posted 19 February 2016 - 02:43 PM

A little more than 4 months later and HRC is falling apart.


But it's her time! The Clintons will probably dig up something bad on him soon.
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Hi.

#58 dc.

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Posted 19 February 2016 - 02:57 PM

Not quite. Even after a poor showing in NH, that did not mean much in terms of delegates. Hillary is holding a commanding lead in SC:

http://www.realclear...imary-4167.html

SC will be a big test for Bernie as it has a diverse counties that are better representative of the country as a whole. If he polls strong in SC he will have some serious momentum. If not, it will be a difficult battle going into Super Tuesday.


Delegates are really for Bernie, the story delegate counts should not be added yet as they change with popular opinion.

Bernie is about to win Nevada which will be huge and could turn many other states. I think she's in near free fall again.
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Battle not with monsters, lest ye become a monster too. And when you stare into the abyss, the abyss stares also into you.

#59 papasmurfbell

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Posted 19 February 2016 - 03:32 PM

Not quite. Even after a poor showing in NH, that did not mean much in terms of delegates. Hillary is holding a commanding lead in SC:

http://www.realclear...imary-4167.html

SC will be a big test for Bernie as it has a diverse counties that are better representative of the country as a whole. If he polls strong in SC he will have some serious momentum. If not, it will be a difficult battle going into Super Tuesday.

 

Delegates are really for Bernie, the story delegate counts should not be added yet as they change with popular opinion.

Bernie is about to win Nevada which will be huge and could turn many other states. I think she's in near free fall again.

Exactly.  She had a 20 pt lead in NV 6 weeks ago and now it is tied or him winning.  She is pulling up stakes in NV like she expects to lose.  

 

SC she has a slight slide going and remember NV is diverse.  With all the stuff being pulled up from the insinuating Obama's assassination in 08 to the Michelle Alexander article showing the love for AA is mostly smoke and mirrors she is crashing fast.


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k2-_2564f5e3-aa08-456b-81e9-b7cffd9b394d

Fako, Joe Fako I am the Pick Machine!!!


#60 thundercleetz

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Posted 19 February 2016 - 04:15 PM

I understand both your points but Nevada is very much like NH and Iowa: it has a large, white, kind of anti-establishment voting demographic. And that goes for both Democrats and Reublicans in those states. Now Nevada has a fairly sizable Hispanic population. If Bernie wins Nevada but Hillary whips him with Hispanics that still signals trouble for Bernie.

Bottom line: I'm holding back my expectations until after SC.
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