
dc.
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Everything posted by dc.
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I did show it. One article in there directly addresses wonderlic's correlation w player success. There is none. I showed my hand now you want to back down and say you could show evidence but don't want to waste your time. Nice. Very convincing. And I'm still waiting for you to say it straight... Does Eli's Wonderlic make him a better QB or smarter QB than Brady? His brother? If you say so, fine... But I doubt you'd find anyone to agree with you. Even in NY. You're saying # of SB wins makes the QB... It's absurd and you know it. I guess Trent is better than Marino. Please... Show me anything that supports the validity of Wonderlic... Show me anything but SB wins that supports Eli as the better QB... Please.
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By the way, so you ask for "evidence" ... and provide you with more than half a dozen research studies (not opinions, research studies) that support my claim. And that's not evidence enough. It's just opinion. As for calling scouting stupid... there is a difference between "scouting" the industry and "scouting" the skill. As I have tried to distinguish multiple times in this thread, I believe that the "scouting industry" is a joke - as are scouting industries in many sports. There is little to no accountability for scouting as an industry. How often do you see any scouting discussions about mistakes and being held accountable? Never. It was the players fault he didn't meet the hype, not the industry's fault for creating undeserved hype. Scouting as an individual skill and necessity are of course necessary. Not only in drafting - and distinguishing your team from the "industry" that is so full of crap - but also in prepping your team for games. I could call militarism a joke. That doesn't mean I am calling the need for militaries a joke. I am calling the complex a joke. As for being a homer... If Flacco was a 27 and Brady was a 33 and Peyton was a 28 and Eli was a 29... then you obviously believe Eli to be the best of those quarterbacks? I mean, you said it applies to Flacco-Brady and it applies to Peyton-Eli... so I assume it applies to all?
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You think no Super Bowl after the greatest career of a QB to that point ... is because his Wonderlic was low? That is the ultimate in not understanding the idea of causation and correlation. And by the way, as one of the links I provided you proves, there is NO correlation even (not to mention no causation) between Wonderlic score and NFL success. Period.
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First, I never said all scouting was worthless or totally without value. Go re-read. But much of the "scouting" world is full of bull. Of course there is value in some places and some ideas, but not all ideas and not all scouting. Second, as to our brains... no they are not designed to just handle everything. That's a totally false statement. Our brains are not masters at storing information. They are not masters at gathering information. They are not masters at processing information. Evidence: Why do you turn down the radio when you can't find an address? Your brain can't handle it; it needs to focus. Why are eyewitnesses unreliable? Because our brains don't recall the things we are not focused on. Why do older people have "senior moments?" Because they are overloaded with too much information to process? Why do doctors ask for LESS information instead of more when treating ailments like heart attacks? Because more data is not good, especially if it is contradictory. Why do we have to ban cell phone use while driving? Because our brains cannot actually multitask.. Why do students who cram tend to get worse grades? Because our brains are easily overwhelmed and worn out by lots of information. Here's my favorite... showing that people become worse decision makers with more choices. Ever struggle to buy something, here's part of why. Our brains don't handle the info well. Have you heard of confirmation bias? That's the reality of most scouting. If you focus on one player and one guy ... you see one thing and one thing only. And then it becomes an endless cycle of who that player is. It's an echo chamber of how good a guy is or how bad a guy is. An echo chamber of ignoring the one bad game or one bad throw and giving great weight to one good game or good throw. We see it every year with every player and the labels they are given - labels that maybe applied at one time but don't anymore necessarily. We see what we look for. Flacco is ________. What about the time he? Well that doesn't count... doesn't matter as much. Third, pick any draft and we can go player by player and decide how good scouting is. But pick any year... we'll go from there. And I continue to stand by... the Wonderlic is a joke as it is used by the NFL. Not all data is good data. Not all information is valid information. Not all information helps your cause. I am in a field (teaching) that is being bombarded by the idea that success and failure can be determined simply by plugging in numbers. That data should drive everything. I am a huge believer in data, but only good data. And most data is bad data. Relying on bad data will end up with bad results. Very few people dare question the validity of "the good old boys" and the "good old ways"... but they should. It was the basis of Moneyball in MLB in many ways (which I have been trying to avoid). But so many stats and numbers that we hold tell us nothing about a larger picture. But how dare we even think against "the machine."
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Just from the image above looks similar to Hans Rosling work. Check him out re: quality of life for the undeveloped and green energy for the developed.
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I think we know from human brain research that more info does not always make a decision better in fact it can frequently make it worse. I think everyone knows who the top 50 guys are at any time - how much variety is there from ESPN to FOX on who gets picked in the first round? By order maybe a bit, but is it a unique 32 guys? Even a change of 10 players? No. In fact, I bet year to year the top 50 across all teams and networks varies by less than about 5 players. So how unique are your scouts and their perspective? I think scouts pick busts as much as anyone because they buy their own hype as much as anyone. Go pick a draft in the last decade and let's look at the first two rounds and see who we still think is a legit top 64 ... I bet we get at least 20 per year that we label busts - about 33%. Every year. So why not just let ESPN tell us who counts because it's all circular crap. I'm not discounting all scouting by any means but I am not buying random metrics made up by people whose job is to feed a system that feeds them. Scouting at large and its bullshit metrics are about as useful as your average color commentary announcer and his bullshit cliches. In fact they are legitimately the same because I am sure most scouts are has been who feed clichéd "runs downhill" crap to us all. And the Wonderlic is the ultimate is stupid metrics. Meanwhile, you still haven't found the worst Wonderlic by a guy who actually made it. Davis doesn't count.
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I'm not taking the school's side. I'm keeping a discussion open about what is the school's business and what isn't ... Because we want schools to be the perfect answer and then we want them to butt out. The middle ground gets blurry. You may be surprised to hear that I Falk heavily on the student rights side and especially their right to speech. I am in a christian school and welcome challenges, especially in class. But I just think sometimes people forget what it's like to be in the positio of the school who is under immense pressure to "keep students straight" with exceptionally varying opinions on what that means and how to achieve it. And further, depending on the school, what could be a school environment at critical mass in terms of how students interact and function. The school was wrong. And I think the example re medical use makes that point well. But what if he'd said similar about heroin? Do we get a different level of concern? It's just imperfect. All I meant was that I truly sympathize with those who are stuck with the burden of making these decisions - they aren't politicians who really chose the role; they are employees.
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Hunter will give up the long ball. Others will give up the walk or the double. Take your pick. We ran the single-giver with 100+ saves in two seasons out of town. What's left is what's left. You don't find Mariano every day of the week. Hunter is the least of this teams problems... No starting pitching beyond Tillman and no clutch bats or on base percentage.. No runs.
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I do honesty believe that people pay tons of money for things that are worthless. In real life and in the NFL. It is the epitome of "the good old boys club" ... It is no different than hiring coach after coach who has failed because they have the name or the friend or worked for the right guy. Is there a need for "scouting" and looking at talent and evaluating? Certainly. But there's also plenty of crap in the process, plenty of made up games and stats... Most scouts are professional cliche reporters. Hence the reputation of Peyton as a genius QB despite his Wonderlic. Either the scouts are wrong or the Wonderlic is... Or both. Do I want to know how bright a guy is? Yes. Does the Wonderlic help? Probably not more than talking to a guy.
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I understand. I am not taking either side. I'm just telling you that when you walk into a school, every post on every website is playing a part in how that school community functions. And it's really hard. I personally know how to engage students in discussing views without shutting conversation down... But many do not. And I benefit from a school community that is strong to begin with.
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No, I know a public school is not a business. But schools are also unique from other public institutions in the responsibility they have for minors. Maintaining safety and stability in a school of even just 1000 students is not a small feat. And I am somewhat (major emphasis there) sympathetic to the idea that a school's role can't end at 3pm because what happens after 3pm comes into school the next day.
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Peyton is widely discussed as one of the smartest QBs to have played - easily better than his brother at reading a D, making adjustments, etc. Are you really arguing that Eli is the better mind at QB? I know what the Wonderlic is. I also know it's a joke. Scouts are largely a joke too. Just look at first round picks to know.
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1. Almost every country in the world has a federal system like the us where certain laws are left to local authorities. I don't know for how many something like weed that applies, but technically in the us a state can't over ride federal law... Colorado might just get in trouble soon enough. 2. You are certainly right about the law not being what is right. It s applies to more than just drug laws of course. But Thompson should be smart enough to follow his league's rules. Most NFL contacts forbid players to participate in other sports in the off season (Suggs injury). The league can set whatever standards it likes. Right now it doesn't want players smoking up - and even if it were to be legal I bet the NFL doesn't change it's rile right away because too many people will talk about role models... Deal with it. If you don't like your boss's rules... Get a new job.
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Kind of a joke of a question and answer.. Davis never played for any NFL team. Was he even on a practice squad? As a second complaint, the Wonderlic is a joke in itself. Its absurdly stupid has little to do with intelligence and Even less to do with football ability. As has been widely noted recently... According to the test, Peyton is an average qb at best and his brother Eli is one of the smartest/best.
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In his defense, Rasmus should have been out on the check swing that wasn't checked. And we knew coming in Hunter is a fly ball pitcher. JJ gives up runs on multiple little hits that create tension. Hunter will give up fewer hits but more big hits.
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... Rushing to judgment much? I am as skeptical as anyone and was since day one we traded JJ... but Hunter has given up one run and you're calling it a day?
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You know I am always torn on these. If it was a job, not school, where would you fall? Your boss can certainly have an opinion on your out of work activities and opinions. As a teacher I invite my students to have opinions, but I also know that schools need to care about what happens out of school - because it find its way into school and the community. It's a fine line to draw. I tend to come down on the site of the student and the actions of the school especially in trying to cover their tracks are gross. But I can't be 100% convinced that students lives outside of school are separate from their school identities.
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I think the biggest problem with Fallon is that so many of his impressions just plain suck. Some are funny most are lame. At least he has fun. I love Craig Ferguson but he is too wacky for mainstream... His puppets and robot Geoff put the mannequin gigs to shame. And his impressions also stuck but he knows it and plays up how bad they are. And best of all his interviews are watchable because he talks about what he wants to.
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It will be coin flip. Like Terrence Cody, it depends on other options. But I also think both are on the brink. If Wieters doesn't hit this year, he's just a good defensive and game calling catcher. Hard to value that. Davis meanwhile comes down to if he can repeat. If not, he's hard to spend big on . In both cases, they each benefit from how long it's taken the O's to find even decent players in those roles...
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No I agree I was just saying...
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I'd say there are only 2-3 worth money. 5-7 in the last decade combined
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Everyone else said it nice but I can't help but say it straight... How can you judge the new cast without watching? By the way - I agree they aren't as good and I prefer several casts to everything over the last 15 years. But I've watched both.
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You still don't see the hypocrisy?
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You go re-read what you said. In one sentence you said you hadn't watched the show since Eddie Murphy. In the next you said that the crew with Murphy was the best ever and the recent can't compete. Well, I've never read Dickens or Poe... but Poe is easily the better author.
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Jim Carreu was not on SNL - that was In Living Color