Playoff Scenarios

[dc.]

So, by now I'm sure most of us know... but it's interesting to see...

 

We can clinch our playoff birth this weekend with a number of scenarios... They all start with a win of course, and then we need:

 

1. JAX loss/tie AND NJY loss/tie

2. JAX loss/tie AND DEN loss

3. MIA loss/tie, NYJ loss/tie AND DEN loss

4. JAX loss, NYJ loss, TEN loss/tie, AND HOU/MIA tie (haha, like that'll happen).

 

Anyway... a handful of very possible scenarios. Remember, Denver plays @ Philly and Jax plays @ New England. That could make Scenario 2 come true. Also the Jets are @ Indy. So, we could have Scenarios 1 and 2 both come true.

 

But what's really interesting, is that if we win and one of these scenarios comes through... BUT Cincinnati loses, then we have perhaps the weirdest situation in NFL playoff history.

 

If one of these scenarios comes true and the Bengals lose (and HOU/MIA do not tie) ... then the Bengals will remain #1 in the division, without a secured playoff spot, while the Ravens are #2 in the division and have secured a playoff spot.

 

Two words: crazy bananas. haha

[cravnravn]

I been playing around with that Yahoo simulator..

 

Us win out

Bengals lose out

Denver wins out

 

Bengals are ELIMINATED

 

And we host the Dolphins at the ATM

 

Edited December 23, 2009 by cravnravn

[smokeyjon]

I been playing around with that Yahoo simulator..

 

Us win out

Bengals lose out

Denver wins out

 

Bengals are ELIMINATED

 

And we host the Dolphins at the ATM

 

 

I would love to see that just for the Bungal rage.

 

That said, even if we get in we're not going anywhere this postseason, especially with Webb down.

[dc.]

I would love to see that just for the Bungal rage.

 

That said, even if we get in we're not going anywhere this postseason, especially with Webb down.

 

Which I still can't entirely agree with...

 

If the Bengals lose out, we get a home game. And we can certainly win at home - especially against Denver, Jax, Miami, whoever...

 

Meanwhile, we've played everyone else:

 

Beat San Diego

Lose by a field goal to Indy

Lose by 4 to NE

 

So, as bad as our D was in those games... as awful as they were in so many ways... I still have to think that there's no way we are down and out in any of them.

 

There's a big disconnection in the naysayers...

 

Either (A) this team is bad and has been lucky to hang with the big boys (and lose).... or (B) we've never played to potential and are a disappointment.

 

Logically, it's hard to believe that this bad, bad team continually plays good teams close. That means that we always catch good teams on their worst days or the good teams simply aren't that good. I eliminate the 'always catching a good team on a bad day' line. It makes no sense. Which leaves that other teams aren't as good as they seem. Which plays to our advantage.

 

Which leaves B. And B says that we haven't played well, and certainly not as well as we can. Which means that if we are playing good teams so close, even while playing poorly, we're much better than we appear. And that means that if we ever put it together, we can beat these teams. And really, the games say that. We are 1-2 plays a game from wins.

 

In any case... any game is winnable. Playoffs or not.

[varaven45]

Crav,

 

Hate to say it-but there is no way KC beats the Bengals in Cincy. KC is atrocious!

Bengals go 10-6.

 

We need to focus on thr Steeler game and win out !

[geo]

I think you have a case.

 

Btw some love from:

 

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2009/week-15-dvoa-ratings

[83eh01]

I been playing around with that Yahoo simulator..

 

Us win out

Bengals lose out

Denver wins out

 

Bengals are ELIMINATED

 

And we host the Dolphins at the ATM

 

 

How about this

 

Ravens win out

Bengals lose out

Jacksonville and Miami win out

 

Bengals and Patriots are out, though the Ravens host Denver...not a big fan of that.

[cravnravn]

Hate to say it-but there is no way KC beats the Bengals in Cincy.

 

 

Its the Bungles dam it, the ones that got blown out by Houston, the same ones that got bitched in Oakland, dont read too much into last weaks play in San Diego..If a team needs death for inspiration, then the team needs a new leader.

[bmw800]

I calculated out the strength of victory tiebreaker current standings, just to see where everyone is right now, since this will probably be a deciding factor if we lose against Pittsburgh:

 

Ravens: 42-70 .375

Broncos: 57-55 .509

Dolphins: 43-55 .439

Jets: 41-57 .418

 

All the other teams would not come down to this tiebreaker, more than likely. So, I really hope this is not the tiebreaker we get to, because we would not make it in in that case.

[dc.]

I don't think it would come to that tie-breaker... at least not with all of the teams listed.

 

First and foremost, the Jets play Indy. They're done.

 

Secondly, we own the first tie-break with Denver (head-to-head). So, even if we were to somehow lose a tiebreak to the Dolphins, that would leave us and Denver vying for the 6th spot... and we would win that tie-break, reverting to the head-to-head game.

 

But, also, I think the conference record and similar opponent tie-breakers are the first (after head-to-head)... and I doubt that the Dolphins and Ravens are equal in both of those (not in the mood to look it up).

 

 

 

Also, 83... why don't you like the sound of Denver coming into Baltimore in the Wild Card??? We did it once....

[83eh01]

Also, 83... why don't you like the sound of Denver coming into Baltimore in the Wild Card??? We did it once....

 

At the time I just felt they are the tougher matchup than the Dolphins or Bengals

 

 

Webb out still concerns me (and I haven't read up on Reed lately), but I need to get over it. They need to show up and win.

[cravnravn]

Webb out still concerns me (and I haven't read up on Reed lately),

 

Dont!!! It'll ruin your holiday.

[vmax]

THERE WILL BE NO DROP OFF WITH FRANK "THE HANK THAT DON'T STANK" WALKER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

 

"Look! I'm defending the pass!"

[bmw800]

I don't think it would come to that tie-breaker... at least not with all of the teams listed.

 

First and foremost, the Jets play Indy. They're done.

 

Secondly, we own the first tie-break with Denver (head-to-head). So, even if we were to somehow lose a tiebreak to the Dolphins, that would leave us and Denver vying for the 6th spot... and we would win that tie-break, reverting to the head-to-head game.

 

But, also, I think the conference record and similar opponent tie-breakers are the first (after head-to-head)... and I doubt that the Dolphins and Ravens are equal in both of those (not in the mood to look it up).

 

 

 

Also, 83... why don't you like the sound of Denver coming into Baltimore in the Wild Card??? We did it once....

 

Well, if Indy rests their starters, that changes things, but the Jets would be a long-shot anyway.

 

The issue is that the head-to-head tiebreaker with Denver doesn't mean anything if another team is involved in the tiebreaker. If the Broncos, Dolphins, and Ravens all tied at 9-7, it would be Denver and Miami who got in. All the teams would be 7-5 in conference (assuming Denver loses to Philly and beats KC). The next tiebreaker is common games. Unfortunately, the common games tiebreaker would also be tied in this case (assuming we beat Oakland and lose to Pitt), since Denver has beaten San Diego and New England while losing to San Diego, Pittsburgh, and Indy, Miami has beaten New England and Pitt (if they win out) and lost to San Diego, New England, and Indy, and the Ravens have beaten Pittsburgh and San Diego, and lost to New England, Pittsburgh, and Indy. That would mean we would go to strength of victory, which would advance the Broncos and leave the Ravens and Miami tied. The same tiebreakers would be applied over again, and Miami would advance.

 

And that also assumes that Jacksonville loses, since if they go 7-7 they would be the first 7-7 team in due to a better conference record.

[SpearSrai]

The Dolphins aren't winning out, especially not with Henne against the Steelers' pass rush and Ben against that secondary. If we do lose to Pittsburgh, then Miami certainly will as well.

 

Jacksonville is the team that can hurt us, more than anyone.

[cravnravn]

I dont know Spear, when we eliminate the Stealers tomorrow..I think the boys in black and baby diaper yellow will pack it in.

[OutsideRzAcE]

Crap...Colts have a 5pt lead here in the 3rd Q but it looks like Manning's backup is warming up

[dc.]

JAX lost. Denver is losing and looks to lose. That's all we need.

 

Now we just need to win in a week.

 

Pitt, the Jets, .... all just bonus.

[OutsideRzAcE]

Manning is out : (

[vmax]

So...a Ravens win Sunday and they are in?

[OutsideRzAcE]

JAX lost. Denver is losing and looks to lose. That's all we need.

 

Now we just need to win in a week.

 

Pitt, the Jets, .... all just bonus.

 

Well that's a relief because I don't think the Colts are going to win this one.

[OutsideRzAcE]

wow...first play for the Colts backup he fumbles and it's recovered by the Jets for a TD

[thundercleetz]

WTF? Why was Manning pulled?

[OutsideRzAcE]

WTF? Why was Manning pulled?

 

Because the Colts have everything locked up and Caldwell doesn't care about going undefeated

[colincac]

Manning pulled. Painter gets hit fumble recovered for a TD. FUCK. We need Cincy to play its guys next week and thats very doubtful. Hopefully Manning comes back in.