Win the division or bust/AFC playoff outlook

[RavensDomination]

I know there is a lot of talk about getting a home playoff game. I am sure we are all well aware of the fact that under Harbaugh we haven't had one even though we have gone to the playoffs for three straight years. Given our play at home this is going to be critical if we want to make a Super Bowl run.

 

The #2 seed will most likely be the Patriots and the #1 seed will most likely be the winner of the AFC North. Texans/West division winner will be 3/4 seeds. Here are the contenders and their schedules...

 

 

Ravens - 8-3 - @CLE, IND, @SD, CLE, @CIN

Steelers - 7-3 - @KC, CIN, CLE, @SF, STL, @CLE

Patriots - 7-3 - @PHI, IND, @WAS, @DEN, MIA, BUF

Texans - 7-3 - @JAC, ATL, @CIN, CAR, @IND, TEN

 

I am guessing the Patriots will only lose one more game putting them at 12-4. Texans will lose a few more putting them at 11-5.

 

For us, I don't know if winning out is realistic. San Diego won't be a gimme, neither will Cincinnati. I'd say 4-1 is likely putting us at 12-4.

 

That leaves the Steelers. They have the easiest schedule remaining by far. The San Francisco game could basically decide the AFC North and the #1 seed, they HAVE to lose for us to tie them if we screw up and lose a game. I hope Harbs and company shares some intel.

[vmax]

That's the sobering truth.

 

I think the Ravens have to win out. That makes the season finale at Cinci a huge game...for them too because they will probably be in the wild card race.

It's a tall order but should they win out then they woul;d be the scariest team in the AFC playoffs.

 

Just got to go 1 game at a time and take care of business....I want home field bad.

 

Then again I have this other voice in my head...

 

"The Steelers will lose to the Bengals and 49ers."

[papasmurfbell]

Don't forget SD. While not playing well it is there and they have talent.

[cravnravn]

Iam not worried about San Diego at all, the team has quit, however Cinncy Jan 1 thats the game Im worried about.

 

Keep this in mind too, Carson Palmer owns the Ravens be it here or at Cinncy, now that hes on the Raiders and they are making their run in that terrible division, look out.

Edited November 27, 2011 by cravnravn

[RavensDomination]

I am praying that Jan 1st game won't mean anything (in terms of wild card race anyway) for Cincy. That will help a little. At the end of the day though we handled Dalton pretty well, the game wouldn't have been that close if the Jimmy Smith/Defensive miscommunication doesn't happen.

 

Winning out would be great...all of that momentum heading into the #1 seed/first round bye. Doesn't get any better than that. I will take the Ravens at home against anyone in the AFC. Given our track record this season though I am tempering my expectations.

[RavensDomination]

Something else I learned today about seeding...apparently, even though we beat Houston, if there is a 3 way tie the first tie breaker is conference record, not head to head. Makes no sense, but it makes Houston the #1 seed as of today. I am not too worried overall except for if we tie New England and Pittsburgh at the end of the year, I guess our two wins against Pittsburgh are meaningless??? That sounds pretty stupid if you ask me.

[ForceEight]

Something else I learned today about seeding...apparently, even though we beat Houston, if there is a 3 way tie the first tie breaker is conference record, not head to head. Makes no sense, but it makes Houston the #1 seed as of today. I am not too worried overall except for if we tie New England and Pittsburgh at the end of the year, I guess our two wins against Pittsburgh are meaningless??? That sounds pretty stupid if you ask me.

Yes, the first tiebreaker is conference record. But that's involving the top four playoff seeds. The head to head with Pittsburgh still matters because in a tie situation, that would decide who wins the division. The loser would therefore be a wild card (or not in the playoffs), not a top four seed (where the conference record comes into effect).

[cravnravn]

Something else I learned today about seeding...apparently, even though we beat Houston, if there is a 3 way tie the first tie breaker is conference record, not head to head. Makes no sense, but it makes Houston the #1 seed as of today. I am not too worried overall except for if we tie New England and Pittsburgh at the end of the year, I guess our two wins against Pittsburgh are meaningless??? That sounds pretty stupid if you ask me.

 

 

I know, aint that a crock of shit, we kick the shit out of San Fran, Sat morning we are the #1 seed, and by Sunday afternoon, we are the 3 seed having to face the Bengals...

[vmax]

Just punched in a few scenarios into ESPN's Playoff Machine and this is how the AFC playoff seedings turned out:

 

If teams with better winning percentage win out: 1. Ravens, 2. Patriots, 3. Texans, 4, Raiders, 5. Steelers and 6. Jets.

 

If home teams win out: 1. Patriots, 2. Texans, 3. Steelers, 4. Broncos, 5. Ravens and 6. Bengals.

 

If higher ranked defenses win out: 1. Ravens, 2. Texans, 3. Broncos, 4. Jets, 5. Steelers and 6. Bengals.

 

Of course, all of the games won't play out this way. But it gives you an idea of how much movement can happen over the final five weeks of the regular season. What's great about the playoff machine is you can also pick the results for each game and see how that affects the seedings.

http://espn.go.com/blog/afcnorth/post/_/id/36692/playoff-machine-afc-scenarios

 

It's a tight race and the Ravens need to win out at this time.

[oldno82]

 

It's a tight race and the Ravens need to win out at this time.

Winning out is the only sure fire way to get homefield advantage through the playoffs. That should be the Ravens' mentality.