Coronavirus

[vmax]

We should have had this thread up long ago.

This "Fear Flu" has wrecked the economy.

I go to about 1300 homes a year do to my job. Hundreds of thousands ....almost millions more due to my keen insight and posting skills... Anyway, my main concern is infecting the elderly or the very young because you don't know that you are carrying it for possibly 14 days before you feel the symptoms. They will suffer the most.

Basic Information:

Quote

Officials estimate the death rate for the virus to be around 3% to 4% globally, based on the information they have, though they expect that number to fall.

People who get coronavirus will typically get sick with a mild to moderate upper respiratory tract illness, similar to a common cold. Symptoms include a runny nose, cough, sore throat, headache and a fever that can last for a couple of days. Most of the time, symptoms will go away on their own.

The disease can be fatal but those cases are rarer.

For those with a weakened immune system, the elderly and the very young, there's a chance the virus could cause a lower, and much more serious, respiratory tract illness like pneumonia or bronchitis.

Given that thousands of people have been infected and authorities are still struggling to contain the virus, though, even a 3% to 4% mortality rate is worrisome....https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/debunking-the-coronavirus-myths-and-misinformation/ar-BB10IxnP

The latest "Fact" that I've read is that you can't get it from food. It transmits mainly from people. Not so sure on this one.

 

[vmax]

This will effect OTA's if it takes 8-12 weeks to run it's course.

[vmax]

Here's what is happening in Spain and what could be a next step here....

Quote

In a lockdown similar to the one already imposed in Italy, people will be allowed to leave their homes only to buy food and medicine, commute to work, go to hospitals and banks, or take trips related to the care of the young and the elderly. All schools and universities were closed, along with restaurants, bars, hotels and other non-essential retail businesses..... Spanish authorities said the number of infections climbed past 5,700, half of them in the capital, Madrid. That represents a national increase of over 1,500 in 24 hours. The country had 136 deaths, up from 120. Spain has the fifth-highest number of cases, behind China, Italy, Iran and South Korea. .....https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/spain-locks-down-its-citizens-while-france-shuts-nightlife/ar-BB11aGo8?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=U508DHP

We might see a rapid increase here in a short period of time because there has not been much testing of our population.

 

What it does to people...

https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/2020/03/13/what-coronavirus-does-body-covid-19-infection-process-symptoms/5009057002/

Edited March 15, 2020 by vmax

[papasmurfbell]

Iran and SK are outliers.  Iran is burying ppl in mass graves.  SK has very few dying.  It is all about being prepared and having a good plan.  We are somewhere in the middle.

[vmax]

Wow.....

Quote

The Imperial College group reported that if nothing was done by governments and individuals and the pandemic remained uncontrolled, then 510,000 would die in Britain and 2.2 million in the United States over the course of the outbreak.

These kinds of numbers are deeply concerning for countries with top-drawer health-care systems. They are terrifying for less-developed countries, global health experts say.

If Britain and the United States pursued much more ambitious measures to mitigate the spread of coronavirus, to slow but not necessarily stop epidemic over the coming few months, they could reduce mortality by half, to 260,000 people in the United Kingdom and 1.1 million in the United States.......https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/a-chilling-scientific-paper-helped-upend-us-and-uk-coronavirus-strategies/ar-BB11jVNP?li=BBnbcA1&ocid=U508DHP

 

[deeshopper]

This is how the zombie apocalypse starts.

[vmax]

Good read.....

https://www.baltimoresun.com/opinion/columnists/dan-rodricks/bs-ed-rodricks-coronavirus-nurse-20200317-wffabx4oe5gq5gqauokiol2iki-story.html?fbclid=IwAR2UXOjnR7h2jwIJmc_uoguLZxa4st2Gigd-3qJTjEifGGjrgMTPhRQGxHI

[papasmurfbell]

I am seeing how melenials are still out partying.  I had to explain to someone that since boomers and others are cool with fosil fuels an dont care about climate change why do you think the young should change for your benefit?

[vmax]

California shut down. Everybody has to stay home.

I think Maryland will follow suit by Monday. This must be done.

Quote

Can the U.S. 'flatten its curve' – slow down the spread of coronavirus –  as places in Asia have?

China, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan – we can take very significant lessons from these places. Anyone who looks at the experiences in Asia will see highly activated systems to avoid further transmission by having people shelter in place, avoid interactions, hand washing and all the other things that we know make a difference (easy access to testing and tracing). That lesson should apply to any circumstance where this virus is spreading. It may be that a country like China has a more top-down ability to insist on certain sets of behavior changes. But we ought to be able to do it in our way, in a bottom-up fashion. Americans are smart. They now have some data they can look at it to know how important this is. We just have to get together and say, as a people, this is so important for saving what may otherwise be a million lives lost.

We should be able to blunt it. But let's be clear: There's going to be a very rough road in the weeks and months ahead of us. They are trying to manage the situation and make awful decisions about who gets a ventilator and who doesn't. God help us if this happens more broadly across the world and we certainly hope that it doesn't happen here. When you make a decision about one of these measures, such as social distancing, and it's front of mind for everybody, don't expect that you can see an immediate consequence. Right now, in the U.S., we supposedly have 6,500 cases (as of March 16). That's got to be a vast underestimate because we have not been able to sample all the people who may be infected or who have no symptoms at all. Some of these people are already destined to become very sick. If we did everything right today, you would still see the numbers going up over the next two weeks because of what's out there already. We can't change that. But, what we might be able to do is change what's going to happen three or four weeks from now. That's our challenge. When you're on an exponential curve every moment is dangerous. This is a particularly critical moment for us to try to bring all the resources and determination of government and the American people to try to get off of it.

The risk of a second wave when much of the population is still not immune because they didn't get it in the first place is always there. China will be watching this closely (now that it has started to ease restrictions in some areas and reported no new cases). Until we have a vaccine, and we get herd immunity with 90%-95% of the population immunized, this risk of another wave is not going away. We have to think about that, too. If we're organized enough, if we're smart enough, if we're motivated enough, to flatten our curve this year, and, say, only 10% of the U.S. population gets it this year, then when the next wave comes along we'll be better off. But only if we have the vaccine.   .........................https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2020/03/19/nih-francis-collins-coronavirus-questions-answers/2873121001/

 

[GrubberRaven]

People still need essential things Max...you're not including essential places to shop are you?

[papasmurfbell]

I still need to go out to work on the garden.

[vmax]

On 3/20/2020 at 10:06 AM, GrubberRaven said:

People still need essential things Max...you're not including essential places to shop are you?

No...I didn't mean stuff like food shopping, doctors visits....even walking outside is fine as long as you stay 6' away from people. Exercise is good. Plus people need to get fresh air after long periods of time in the house. It gives a huge mental boost. I saw families, the elderly and kids walking all over the neighborhoods yesterday as I traveled 5 counties and DC yesterday.

We need to shut down like California, New York, Ohio. Make the streets as empty as possible and the chance of 10 or more gathering in public nil.

That means only businesses with essential services for human life and heath remain open.

This is Massive Change. Life as we knew it is gone. Nothing will be the same....yet take heart....just like this gorgeous spring that is enfolding around us, new life, a different life....new growth will unfold.

We will come out of this better.

Here's the lock down information and what we should do now. This could save a million or more lives in the US.

Quote

I am an MIT-trained physicist and complexity scientist who studies pandemics. I have warned about global pandemics due to increasing travel for 15 years. I recommended community based monitoring of symptoms to stop Ebola in West Africa in 2014, and it worked. The fastest and even the only way to contain COVID-19 in the United States is a five-week national lockdown.

Closing schools, bars and movie theaters are good measures, but not enough. Our relaxed approach to social distancing is insufficient to stop the exponential growth of COVID-19. Until Americans consistently adopt strong social distancing recommendations — a lockdown — the disease will continue to spread exponentially.

During a five-week national lockdown, federal, state and local authorities would ensure that all Americans stay home except to obtain food and other essentials, access medical care, or do work essential to the functioning of society. Travel would cease: We would close our borders and airports and prohibit all unnecessary travel across state and county (or town) lines within the United States. The U.S. government would have to provide aid to citizens separated from their sources of income and ensure care for vulnerable members of society. https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/03/21/coronavirus-america-needs-five-week-national-lockdown-column/2890376001/

Quote

Lockdown would sharply reduce cases

During the first two weeks of a lockdown, infected individuals will either recover from mild cases of COVID-19 at home or seek medical attention for the 14% of cases that are severe. During the third, fourth and fifth weeks, any newly infected family or cohabitants of infected individuals will recover or seek medical attention and their isolation will prevent further spreading. By the end of the lockdown, the number of infections will be a small fraction of what they are now.  The lockdown will give us time to dramatically scale up our supply of COVID-19 test kits and capacity to process them. If we reduce the number of infections using the lockdown and start a massive testing regime in the United States, we can control COVID-19 after five weeks without such extreme social distancing measures. Isolating sick individuals and their immediate contacts will be enough.

The human and economic costs of delaying this lockdown will be staggering. The COVID-19 outbreak has many more cases now than are visible (tip of the iceberg) and they are growing rapidly.  Absent sufficiently effective intervention, new cases will increase 1.3 to 1.5 times each day. We had almost 20,000 cases in the United States on Friday, over 5,800 more cases than the previous day. Without a lockdown, in one week there will be about 200,000. In two weeks: 2,000,000. One in seven cases require hospitalization and 5% require ICU care with ventilators to survive. There aren’t nearly enough ventilators available. 

The effectiveness of a five-week lockdown will be dramatic — and also entirely predictable.

We know a U.S. lockdown can work because it worked in China. At the height of its COVID-19 crisis in mid-February, China had locked down an estimated 760 milllion people, approximately half of its population. This policy was so successful that Wuhan is now much safer from coronavirus than New York City or Washington, D.C. The few new COVID-19 cases in China now stem from foreign travelers rather than local transmission, and all are safely quarantined. 

We know what we have to do. President Donald Trump and our states' governors and local leaders must act now to save millions of lives.

 

Edited March 21, 2020 by vmax

[vmax]

Quarantine will bring change. People will evolve. People will adapt. They'll come up with new things to do. Just like this fine couple...

Edited March 21, 2020 by vmax

[papasmurfbell]

They better not prvent me frm going to the garden.  I have over 300 plants in the garden or growing indoors that need tending.  This is supposed to be food for for the yr.  I also want it so I can eat if food supplies break down with this outbreak.

[oldno82]

They won't prevent you from going to the garden.

I agree with Max on everything he said and quoted. Time to lock down.

[papasmurfbell]

I just don't want a Italy or Spain sit where they are actually locked in doors.

[vmax]

Let's take a peek at papa this morning....

 

[Spen]

I guess I'll go see what is left at the grocery store

[papasmurfbell]

Now there are 2 more trellises and one more potato tower.

[deeshopper]

On 3/22/2020 at 12:58 PM, Spen said:

I guess I'll go see what is left at the grocery store

What did you find?

[papasmurfbell]

Basically all ready for my 300+ seedlings.  Between cutting it out and today making it into usable size pieces pulled out a couple hundred pounds of grape wood.  Makes for a nice pork shoulder smoking.  

[Spen]

4 hours ago, deeshopper said:

What did you find?

It wasn't great but I could get most of what I needed.  I did have top go to two stores to get everything.  No toilet paper or paper towels needed yet and have a bad feeling about finding them in a week or so. 

It's weird what people are hoarding.  Tortilla chips, trash bags....

[GrubberRaven]

My wife always bought the big packs of tp, so we're good for a month, but never hoarded the crap.

The things I see most vacant are meats (hot dogs especially, wtf) .  Cheese sticks have been gone since this whole thing started, but I notice that only because my kids eat them.

Pancake mix.

[deeshopper]

I got hot dogs! For my beans and toast. Yum.

[vmax]

I travel all over Maryland everyday and the streets are deserted. People are staying home and I think this will make the virus impact less severe and save a ton of lives.

I love how Hogan is leading.